The National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Erfen) has confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon is strengthening in Ecuador, and the Secretariat of Risk Management (SGR) maintains the Orange alert. In the middle of the maturity phase, El Niño has left its mark, manifesting itself with anomalies of high temperatures on the Coast during much of the second half of 2023, José González, Coordinator of INAMHI Guayaquil, told the media. 

This weather phenomenon has disrupted the norm, affecting the expected cold season in the region. However, in contrast, the Sierra and the Amazon have experienced deficit rainfall associated with the impact of El Niño, he said. 

Gonzalez also indicated that the situation has been evaluated and foresees that, unlike exceptional events such as 1982-83 and 1997-98, the intensity of the present El Niño would remain in a moderate range, ruling out significant similarities with the extraordinary El Niños of the past. 

In conclusion, rainfall on the Coast is expected to be between average and slightly above normal, avoiding an excess characteristic of extraordinary weather events. The population is on alert, and authorities continue to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño in search of adaptive and preventive responses, he said. 

However, according to the latest ENSO bulletin from the US NOAA, there would be a 54% chance of a "Historically Strong" El Niño. 

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