According to a recent analysis by maritime research and consulting firm Drewry, the Global pool of shipping containers for the current and coming years will contract. The forecast is influenced by continually high inflation rates worldwide, which have suppressed demand, and growing geopolitical instability affecting investor confidence, collectively reducing the growth outlook for global trade.

Drewry's latest report on the container equipment market indicates an anticipated decline of 2.6% in the container pool for the current year, with further contraction expected in 2024. The last instance of a year-over-year reduction in the container pool was recorded during the global financial crisis, which saw a 3.7% decrease in the total number of containers in service between 2008 and 2009, dropping from 27.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units (mteu) to 26.9 mteu.

The most significant oversupply of container equipment is observed in the 40ft high-cube segment. The excess stems from heightened demand for this container type in late 2020 and throughout 2021 and accounted for over 85% of all dry freight containers produced in 2021, a year that witnessed a record production of over 6.6 mteu. The 40ft high-cube category surplus is expected to persist until 2025 unless trade dynamics are substantially reversed.

Ocean carriers and leasing companies have significantly curtailed their container purchasing programmes in 2023, with projections indicating that these entities will take delivery of at most 1.1 m teu of new containers this year. Drewry anticipates a gradual recovery in purchasing plans for 2024, primarily driven by the replacement of ageing containers, with a more substantial increase expected in 2025. This surge is linked to the container production boom between 2006 and 2008, generating an estimated nine mteu, which is approaching the end of its operational lifespan.

The expected recovery in container production from 2024 is contingent on a modest rebound in global trade and the continued penetration of container shipping into other freight transport sectors. It includes expanding specialized reefer shipping and perishables within the airfreight industry and capturing market share from roll-on/roll-off and breakbulk vessels in a project and out-of-gauge cargo movement. These trends are anticipated to drive demand for reefer and special dry freight containers, such as open tops and flat racks.

Drewry estimates a seven per cent increase in the global container pool by 2027 compared to the levels in 2023, reflecting the expected recovery and growth in the years to come.

An anticipated decline of 2.6% is expected in the container pool for the current year, with further contraction expected in 2024.