Maersk is expected to post third-quarter revenue of $12.66 billion, down 44% from a year earlier, according to a FactSet consensus.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are seen at $2.12 billion from $10.86 billion a year earlier, while net profit is seen falling 96% to $334 million, according to FactSet. Earnings are expected to be hit by a sharp drop in freight rates and weak demand for container freight. 

While demand has fallen back, the container industry is plagued by overcapacity from eased bottlenecks in ports and deliveries of new container ships, which has pressured freight rates, Sydbank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen said in a note. He models an average freight rate of $2,245 for an FFE--a standard 40-foot container--in 3Q, corresponding to a decrease of 55% on the year. Costs will continue to be burdened by inflation, but a lower level of activity, cost initiatives and lower fuel prices will ensure a significant drop in costs from last year. Sydbank estimates fuel costs fell by around $900 million in 3Q of the year. The bank models a 3% drop in transported volumes in 3Q compared with the same period last year, driven by macroeconomic deceleration, standard consumption patterns and company inventory adjustments, he said. Sydbank sees revenue at Maersk's main ocean unit at $7.8 billion, with Ebitda falling 87% to $1.3 billion.

Sydbank expects a weak peak season, continued falling rates and rising fuel prices to weigh on earnings in the final quarter. Delivery of new ships will also contribute to long-term overcapacity, not just for the rest of 2023 but also in the coming years, the bank adds. "We continue to model a negative operating result in the fourth quarter. The worsening market conditions are, however, already partly factored into Maersk's forecast for 2023." Sydbank expects a slight downward adjustment or a narrowing of the current earnings range toward its low end. The bank models a full-year EBITDA of $9.8 billion. Maersk has guided to full-year 2023 underlying EBITDA of $9.5 billion to $11 billion, underlying earnings before interest and taxes of $3.5 billion to $5 billion and free cash flow of $3 billion. It sees global container volumes falling between 4% and 1% in 2023. The company's cumulative capital expenditure target is seen at the lower end of $9 billion to $10 billion for 2022-23 and $10 billion-$11 billion for 2023-24.